About MacroOdds
MacroOdds is an independent, reader-supported research site that tracks Fed and macro prediction markets — pairing live Polymarket and Kalshi odds with the official data from FRED and CME FedWatch.
What MacroOdds is
MacroOdds is an independent, reader-supported research site founded in 2026. We are not affiliated with any exchange, broker, or government agency. Every page pairs a live prediction-market price with the official macro data behind it, so you can see what the market expects next to what the data actually says.
Where the numbers come from
Odds come from live order-book prices on Polymarket (via the public Gamma API) and Kalshi. The market-implied rate-cut path is read against CME FedWatch. Official macro data — the federal funds rate, CPI, unemployment, Treasury yields and more — comes from the Federal Reserve's FRED database. Full detail is on the methodology page.
How we are funded — transparency
MacroOdds is reader-supported through a single affiliate relationship: links to Polymarket are affiliate links (marked rel="sponsored") and we may earn a commission if you sign up through them. That is the only affiliate revenue on the site. We do not run Kalshi referral links, and an affiliate relationship never changes the data we report or which way a number points.
Who writes it
Coverage and the MacroOdds model are produced by our editorial desk. Meet the team on the editorial desk page.
Not financial advice
Everything on MacroOdds is informational only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction markets and trading involve risk of loss. Content is intended for adults 18 and over. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed professional before making any financial decision.