CPI / Inflation Prediction (Market Odds + Official CPI)
What the market expects from the next inflation report, beside the official Consumer Price Index and core PCE. CPI releases are among the most-traded macro events, and the prediction market often prices the surprise before the number lands.
Prediction market says
86%
No: Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
PolymarketThe official data
Headline vs core, and CPI vs PCE
Headline CPI includes food and energy; core strips them out because they are volatile. The Fed pays closer attention to core and to the month-over-month pace than to the year-over-year headline.
Crucially, the Fed's official 2% target is set on core PCE, not CPI. PCE weights spending differently and usually runs a few tenths below CPI, so the two can tell slightly different stories about the same month.
Prediction markets on inflation usually resolve on the headline CPI year-over-year figure. Confirm the exact resolution source on the market page.
FAQ
Which CPI does the market use?
Most CPI markets resolve on the BLS headline year-over-year number. The official series shown here is the same underlying index, via FRED.