Fed Decision Odds
Live Polymarket probabilities for the next Federal Reserve rate decision, shown next to the official data the Fed actually watches. Odds and data refresh every few minutes.
Next Fed decision · June 16-17, 2026
What the market expects
The official data
Probability history
How cut odds have moved
Implied probability of a cut
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the market-implied probability of that outcome at the next meeting. When you see the cut probability rise, it usually means traders read the latest inflation or jobs data as softer. The macro panel above shows those inputs, and the 2026 rate-cut path page covers how many cuts are priced across the whole year. For the recession backdrop, see our recession odds.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds the Fed cuts rates at the next meeting?
The cut/hold/hike percentages above come live from Polymarket, the largest prediction market. They are the prices traders are paying for each outcome, which read as implied probabilities. They update continuously.
When is the next FOMC meeting?
The next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee decision is shown in the countdown above. The Fed holds eight meetings a year; the rate decision lands on the second day at about 2pm ET.
How are these odds calculated?
We read the live prices from the relevant Polymarket market and group them into cut, hold, and hike. We then show the official macro data (target range, CPI, core CPI, unemployment, 2Y and 10Y yields) next to them so you can see what is driving the odds.
Are prediction-market odds accurate?
Because real money is at stake, prediction-market prices tend to update faster than headlines and often track final outcomes well. They are still probabilities, not guarantees.
Is this financial advice?
No. MacroOdds is informational only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction-market prices are not guarantees.
Informational only, not financial advice. MacroOdds is not affiliated with the Federal Reserve or Polymarket.