Track Record
We publish live odds, so we grade ourselves in public. This is how the market-implied probabilities we track have performed against what actually happened — every resolved Fed decision and inflation print, with the pre-event reading sourced. No cherry-picking.
Market favours a Hold at the June 2026 FOMC — 100% implied. We will grade this after the decision.
See the live June 2026 odds →Every resolved call
Market priced 66% Above 4.2% going in. Actual: 4.2% (not above 4.2%). Kalshi traders priced ~66% YES on May CPI exceeding 4.2%; BLS reported headline CPI at exactly 4.2% YoY, which resolved the market NO, so the favoured call missed.
Market priced 99% Hold going in. Actual: Hold. CNBC: 'Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change.' The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% on an 8-4 vote, its most-dissented decision since 1992.
Market priced 92% Hold going in. Actual: Hold. Going in, CME FedWatch showed a 92%+ probability of a hold at 3.5%-3.75%; the FOMC held on an 11-1 vote, citing uncertain inflation effects from the Iran war.
Market priced 84% Hold going in. Actual: Hold. CME FedWatch put the January hold at 83.9% (this reading is from late December 2025; by mid-January markets had firmed further toward a hold). The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%, ending three consecutive cuts, with Miran and Waller dissenting for a cut.
Calibration
When the market said an outcome was X% likely, how often did it happen? Closer to the diagonal is better-calibrated.
| Confidence | Calls | Avg predicted | Actual hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60-70% | 1 | 66% | 0% |
| 80-90% | 1 | 84% | 100% |
| 90-100% | 2 | 96% | 100% |
How we score this
For each event we record the market-implied probability of the favoured outcome the day before, then mark whether that outcome occurred. Hit rate is the share of correct favoured calls. The Brier score rewards confidence that pays off and punishes confident misses (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip at 50%). The calibration gap compares average confidence to the actual hit rate. Every pre-event number is sourced and linked; entries before this scorecard launched are reconstructed from documented CME FedWatch and prediction-market readings. Informational only, not financial advice. See our methodology.