Fed Rate Cut Probability (Live Odds + Official Data)
The market's view of the next Fed move, priced in real time on Polymarket, sat beside the official federal funds rate. One number is what traders are betting; the other is where rates actually are today.
Prediction market says
82.4%
Yes: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
PolymarketThe official data
What the odds mean
Each outcome's price is the implied probability the market assigns to that result. A market priced at 70 cents means traders collectively put a 70% chance on it.
Because money is at stake, these prices tend to update faster than headlines and often move ahead of official commentary.
How this compares to CME FedWatch
CME FedWatch derives probabilities from fed funds futures. Polymarket derives them from traders buying and selling a yes/no contract. They usually agree closely; when they diverge it can signal where the smart money disagrees with the rates curve.
FAQ
How often do the odds update?
The prediction-market odds refresh roughly every 10 minutes here, and continuously on Polymarket itself.
Is this the same as CME FedWatch?
No. FedWatch is futures-implied; these odds are prediction-market prices. They are independent reads on the same question.