Macro Market Movers
Where the macro prediction markets are moving: the biggest 24-hour and 7-day shifts in the Fed, inflation, recession, and Treasury-yield markets on Polymarket. Refreshes every few minutes.
Biggest 24h movers
| Market | Now | 24h | 7d | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession No: US recession by end of 2026? | 92.5% | -1 pts | 0 pts | $2.3M |
| 10Y Treasury yield No: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | 74.7% | -0.1 pts | +7.8 pts | $207K |
| Fed rate cut (next meeting) Cut: Fed Decision in October? | 0.4% | 0 pts | -0.1 pts | $51.4M |
| US inflation Yes: Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? | 79.5% | 0 pts | +30 pts | $3K |
Biggest 7-day movers
| Market | Now | 24h | 7d | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US inflation Yes: Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? | 79.5% | 0 pts | +30 pts | $3K |
| 10Y Treasury yield No: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | 74.7% | -0.1 pts | +7.8 pts | $207K |
| Fed rate cut (next meeting) Cut: Fed Decision in October? | 0.4% | 0 pts | -0.1 pts | $51.4M |
| US recession No: US recession by end of 2026? | 92.5% | -1 pts | 0 pts | $2.3M |
Most active by volume
| Market | Now | 24h | 7d | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut (next meeting) Cut: Fed Decision in October? | 0.4% | 0 pts | -0.1 pts | $51.4M |
| US recession No: US recession by end of 2026? | 92.5% | -1 pts | 0 pts | $2.3M |
| 10Y Treasury yield No: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | 74.7% | -0.1 pts | +7.8 pts | $207K |
| US inflation Yes: Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? | 79.5% | 0 pts | +30 pts | $3K |
Moves are in percentage points of implied probability, derived from Polymarket price history. Informational only, not financial advice.