Decision Tools

Free, interactive tools to turn the odds and the data into a decision. Everything runs live in your browser. Informational only, not financial advice.

Expected value & edge

Enter your own probability and the market price to see whether a bet has positive expected value.

EV / Edge Calculator

Your probability (%)Market price (cents)Your stake ($)

10.0ppEdge

20.0%Expected ROI

$20.0Expected profit

Positive expected value - you have an edge

Fed rate-path simulator

Set how many 2026 cuts you expect and compare your implied year-end rate with the market.

Rate Path Simulator

Cuts you expect in 2026: 1 cut

3.38%Your implied year-end rate

3.50%Market-implied year-end rate

3.625%Current target midpoint

0.5Market expected cuts

Each cut = 25 bps (0.25%).

Build your own Signal

Re-weight the indicators behind the MacroOdds Signal and see how the cut-or-hold read changes.

Interactive Signal Weighting

Unemployment rate4.3%NeutralWeight: 1x

Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y)+0.38%NeutralWeight: 1x

Your weighting: is mixed

What it means for you

How a rate move hits a mortgage payment, and what inflation does to your savings.

Mortgage Payment Impact

Based on a 30-year fixed-rate term.

Loan amount ($)Current rate (%)Rate change (points)

$2,528Payment now / mo

$2,398Payment after / mo

-$130/moMonthly delta

-$1,561/yrAnnual delta

Inflation Real Return on Savings

Amount ($)Savings APY (%)Inflation (%)

$10,450.00Nominal after 1 yr

$10,145.63Real after 1 yr

You gained purchasing power this year.

See these in context on the Fed decision dashboard and the 2026 rate-cut path.