MacroOdds

Live Polymarket odds for the Fed, inflation, recession and Treasury yields, next to the official macro data.

Live odds and macro data refresh about every 5 to 10 minutes.

Next FOMC decisionJuly 28-29, 2026in ~8 days

Next Fed decision · July 28-29, 2026

What the market expects

Polymarket $82.1M vol

Cut0.5%

Hold83.4%

Hike16.4%

Live

The official data

Fed target range3.5-3.75%

CPI (YoY)—

Core CPI (YoY)—

Unemployment4.2%

2Y Treasury4.21%

10Y Treasury4.6%

The MacroOdds Signal

The data is mixed

Aligned: the market (1% cut) and the fundamentals point the same way.

Unemployment rate

The labor market looks roughly balanced.

4.2%Neutral

Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y)

Roughly flat; a mixed signal.

+0.39%Neutral

A rule-based read of the official data (0 dovish, 0 hawkish), shown next to the live market. Informational, not financial advice.

Polymarket · how many 2026 cuts

The 2026 rate-cut path

0 (0 bps)84.8%

1 (25 bps)9.5%

2 (50 bps)3.5%

3 (75 bps)0.8%

4 (100 bps)0.5%

5 (125 bps)0.3%

6 (150 bps)0.5%

7 (175 bps)0.5%

8 (200 bps)0.2%

9 (225 bps)0.2%

10 (250 bps)0.2%

11 (275 bps)0.2%

12+ (300+ bps)0.5%

Expected cuts (market-implied)0.4

Implied year-end rate3.53%

Current target midpoint3.63%

Biggest macro movers (24h)

Market	Now	24h	7d	Volume
10Y Treasury yield No: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	88.5%	-2 pts	-1 pts	$63K
US recession No: US recession by end of 2026?	88.5%	+0.5 pts	-1.5 pts	$1.7M
Fed rate cut (next meeting) Cut: Fed Decision in July?	0.4%	-0.1 pts	-0.1 pts	$82.1M

Markets right now

S&P 5007,509

VIX volatility18.65

10Y Treasury4.60%

2Y Treasury4.21%

US Dollar Index120.53

WTI Crude$79.20

Gas (reg/gal)$4.00

Source: FRED (St. Louis Fed). Daily/weekly series, cached.

U.S. economy snapshot

National debt$39.59TU.S. Treasuryas of Jul 2026

Avg interest on debt3.41%U.S. Treasuryas of Jun 2026

Unemployment4.2%FRED UNRATEas of Jun 2026

Nonfarm payrolls total jobs159.0MFRED PAYEMSas of Jun 2026

Upcoming FOMC meetings

Meeting	Dates	Dot plot
July 2026	July 28-29, 2026	No
September 2026	September 15-16, 2026	Yes
October 2026	October 27-28, 2026	No
December 2026	December 8-9, 2026	Yes

All macro odds

Fed Decision Odds

Live cut, hold, or hike probabilities for the next FOMC meeting.

Fed Rate Cut Probability

Live prediction-market odds of a Fed rate cut, shown next to the official federal funds rate from FRED. Updated continuously.

Recession Odds 2026

Live prediction-market recession odds alongside official recession indicators: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread and the Sahm rule.

Mortgage Rate Prediction

Where 30-year mortgage rates are headed: the official Freddie Mac 30-year rate from FRED plus any live prediction-market odds on rates.

CPI / Inflation Prediction

Live prediction-market odds on the next CPI print, shown next to the official CPI and core PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge) from FRED.

Next Fed Chair Odds

Live prediction-market odds on who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Market Movers

Biggest 24h and 7d shifts across the macro markets.

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