MacroOdds

Live Fed, recession, inflation and mortgage-rate odds, with prediction-market prices next to the official data.

Prediction market says

83%

Yes: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Polymarket

The official data

Effective federal funds rate3.63%

FRED FEDFUNDSas of May 2026

Fed funds target (upper bound)3.75%

FRED DFEDTARUas of Jun 2026

Markets right now

S&P 5007,584

VIX volatility15.40

10Y Treasury4.47%

2Y Treasury4.05%

US Dollar Index118.88

WTI Crude$95.96

Gas (reg/gal)$4.30

Source: FRED (St. Louis Fed). Daily/weekly series, cached.

U.S. economy snapshot

National debt$39.23TU.S. Treasuryas of Jun 2026

Avg interest on debt3.35%U.S. Treasuryas of May 2026

Unemployment4.3%FRED UNRATEas of May 2026

Nonfarm payrolls total jobs159.0MFRED PAYEMSas of May 2026

All macro odds

Fed Rate Cut Probability

Live prediction-market odds of a Fed rate cut, shown next to the official federal funds rate from FRED. Updated continuously.

Recession Odds 2026

Live prediction-market recession odds alongside official recession indicators: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread and the Sahm rule.

Mortgage Rate Prediction

Where 30-year mortgage rates are headed: the official Freddie Mac 30-year rate from FRED plus any live prediction-market odds on rates.

CPI / Inflation Prediction

Live prediction-market odds on the next CPI print, shown next to the official CPI and core PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge) from FRED.

Next Fed Chair Odds

Live prediction-market odds on who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.