Recession Odds 2026 (Prediction Market + Indicators)
What the market is pricing for a US recession, next to the two official indicators economists watch most: the yield-curve spread and the Sahm rule unemployment trigger.
Prediction market says
93.5%
No: US recession by end of 2026?
PolymarketThe official data
Reading the indicators
A negative 10-year minus 2-year spread (an inverted curve) has preceded most modern recessions. The Sahm rule flags a likely recession when the unemployment rate's three-month average rises half a point above its prior-year low.
Neither is a guarantee. The prediction-market price is the market's all-things-considered probability on top of these signals.
FAQ
What counts as a recession here?
The Polymarket market defines the exact resolution criteria (often an NBER call or two negative GDP quarters). Check the market page for its specific terms.