Methodology — How MacroOdds Calculates the Odds
Every number on MacroOdds is sourced and timestamped. Here is exactly how each one is produced, in plain terms.
By Marcus Ellery, Markets Editor· Updated 2026-06-13
1. Where the odds come from
The headline probabilities are live order-book prices, not our opinions. We read them from Polymarket's public Gamma API and from Kalshi. A market that prices a Fed cut at 0.62 is shown as a 62% implied probability. Pages refresh roughly every 10 minutes via incremental static regeneration, so the prices stay current without hammering the APIs.
2. How we compute 24h / 7d / 30d moves
We do not trust any single "daily change" field — there isn't a reliable one. Instead we pull the price-history series from Polymarket's CLOB endpoint and compute the move ourselves by diffing the current price against the price 24 hours, 7 days and 30 days earlier. Every move you see is an honest difference between two real, timestamped points on that curve.
3. The MacroOdds model
Where the same event is priced in more than one place, we blend the sources into a single consensus probability. We convert each source — Polymarket, Kalshi and CME FedWatch — into log-odds, take a weighted average, and convert back. Log-odds weighting is the method that scores best on forecast accuracy because it treats moves near 0% and 100% sensibly rather than averaging raw percentages. The blended figure is always shown alongside the individual sources so you can see the inputs.
4. The recession gauge
Our 12-month recession probability uses the New York Fed's yield-curve model — the probit on the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread. We feed it the latest Treasury yields and report the model's output directly, without adjustment.
5. The official data
The macro data we compare the markets against — the federal funds rate, CPI inflation, unemployment, Treasury yields and related series — comes straight from the Federal Reserve's FRED database. We show the latest released value next to the market-implied number so you can judge whether the market is leaning with or against the data.
6. Sourcing and timestamps
Every figure traces back to one of those sources, and the data is refreshed on a fixed schedule rather than cached indefinitely. If a data source is temporarily unavailable, the page degrades gracefully and says so rather than showing a stale or invented number.
7. Not financial advice
MacroOdds is informational only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction markets and trading carry real risk of loss, and the site is intended for adults 18 and over. See About MacroOdds for our independence and funding stance, and the editorial desk for who produces this work.