MacroOdds Blog
Plain-English analysis of the Fed, inflation, recession risk and rates, with the live prediction-market odds and official data behind each call.
When Will the Fed Cut Rates? 2026 Outlook & Odds
When will the Fed cut rates in 2026? We break down the FOMC schedule, inflation data, prediction-market odds, and what it means for your portfolio.
CPI vs PCE: The Inflation Gauge the Fed Watches
CPI vs PCE explained: why the Fed targets core PCE at 2%, how the two gauges differ on weighting and scope, and what the latest 2026 readings mean for rate policy.
Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2026? What Markets Say
Will mortgage rates drop in 2026? We break down Fed policy, 10-year Treasury dynamics, and what prediction markets say about the path to lower rates.
Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? 2026 Odds
Who will be the next Fed chair? Kevin Warsh is now confirmed. We track how prediction markets priced the race and what his appointment means for rates.
Recession Odds 2026: What the Market Is Pricing
Live Polymarket odds, NY Fed model readings, the Sahm rule, and yield-curve data all in one place. Here is what the recession odds for 2026 actually say.
What Are Prediction Markets? Polymarket & Kalshi Explained
What are prediction markets? We break down how Polymarket and Kalshi turn crowd wisdom into real-time odds on Fed decisions, elections, and more.
US National Debt Explained (2026): How Big Is It?
The US national debt just crossed $39 trillion. We break down who owns it, what it costs to service, and why it keeps pushing interest rates higher.
2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule: Every Date & What Happens
The complete 2026 FOMC meeting schedule: all eight dates, which meetings include the dot plot, what the Fed actually decides, and how to trade around each decision.
What Is an Inverted Yield Curve? Recession Signal
The inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. We break down what it means, how to read the 10y-2y spread, and what the 2022-2024 inversion tells us now.
How to Bet on Fed Rate Cuts (2026 Guide)
A step-by-step guide to trading Fed rate cut prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, covering contracts, implied probability, fees, and strategy.