MacroOdds

MacroOdds Blog

Plain-English analysis of the Fed, inflation, recession risk and rates, with the live prediction-market odds and official data behind each call.

MacroOdds illustration: eight teal markers spaced unevenly along a horizontal rail across a deep navy field, four of them taller than the rest, with a thin amber line rising across the first three markers and flattening across the last five

2027 FOMC Meeting Schedule: Every Date, Priced

The 2027 FOMC meeting schedule: all eight dates, which ones carry a dot plot, and what Kalshi and Polymarket already price for every 2027 Fed decision.

2026-10-20 · 13 min readMacroOdds illustration on a deep navy field: four horizontal teal rails stacked at slightly different heights forming a narrow corridor across the frame, with a single thin amber line running the full width between the two middle rails without touching either of them

Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: 3.75-4.00%

Federal Reserve interest rates sit at 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike. Markets price an 86.5% hold on October 28 and a 77.5% December hike.

2026-10-16 · 14 min readMacroOdds illustration on a deep navy field: a long teal line running the full width of the frame almost perfectly flat with only tiny undulations, and a single short amber marker floating alone far above it with a wide empty gap between the two

Unemployment Rate Prediction 2026: 4.2% Holds

Unemployment rate prediction for 2026: U-3 printed 4.2% in September and prediction markets price just 4.85% odds of a 5% reading before year-end.

2026-10-13 · 13 min readMacroOdds illustration on a dark navy field: a teal line climbing steadily in seven steps from the lower left to the upper right above a flat amber line that stays level and dips slightly at its right-hand end, with the widening gap between them shaded, under the heading Mortgage rates rose while the Fed path eased

Mortgage Rate Prediction 2026: Markets Say 7.5%

Mortgage rate prediction for 2026: the 30-year fixed hit 7.40% and prediction markets put 68.5% on 7.50% before year-end. Published forecasts say 6.8%.

2026-10-09 · 15 min readMacroOdds illustration on a dark navy field: a horizontal band labelled FOMC target range with 4.00% marked at its upper edge and 3.75% at its lower edge and a single marker inside it, beside a stepped line climbing to the right

Fed Funds Rate 2026: Target Range and Odds

The fed funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike. Live target range, EFFR, and the odds Polymarket and Kalshi give the December meeting.

2026-10-06 · 14 min readAbstract MacroOdds illustration on a dark grid: a dead-flat teal line running the full width, standing for the October cut contract that did not move, with a separate amber line climbing steeply away from it for the December hike

Fed Rate Cut Odds October 2026: Just 0.6%

Fed rate cut odds for October 2026 sit at 0.6% on Polymarket. Payrolls came in at 29,000, July turned negative, and the cut contract never moved.

2026-10-02 · 15 min readAbstract MacroOdds illustration of a luminous teal and amber line rising steeply and then flattening across a faint dark grid, standing for a core PCE inflation rate that is still climbing but losing momentum

Core PCE Inflation 2026: Markets Say 3.4%

Core PCE inflation is the Fed's preferred gauge. Polymarket and the Cleveland Fed both point to 3.4% for August 2026, out at 08:30 ET on September 30.

2026-09-29 · 14 min readFlat illustration of rising payroll bars crossed by a falling unemployment line over a faint grid, for the September 2026 jobs report prediction

Jobs Report Prediction September 2026: 50k-100k

The September jobs report prediction markets price 50k to 100k payrolls and 4.1% unemployment for October 2. Polymarket and Kalshi disagree by 15 points.

2026-09-25 · 14 min readFlat illustration of a fuel pump nozzle whose hose curves into a rising line graph over a faint price grid, for the September 2026 CPI prediction

CPI Prediction September 2026: Markets Say 3.6%

The CPI prediction market prices a 3.6% headline print for September 2026 on October 14. Polymarket and Kalshi disagree about the upside tail.

2026-09-22 · 13 min readTwo dark blocks on a glowing blue floor, a low one on the left and a much taller one on the right, with a bright blue arrow curving upward between them

Fed Rate Hike Odds October 2026: The Skip Just Flipped

Fed rate hike odds for October 2026 jumped to 56% on Polymarket after the unanimous September hike. Here is the repriced path to the end of the year.

2026-09-18 · 13 min readThree abstract stepped platforms on a dark indigo background, the first two level with each other and only the third stepping up, above a faint horizontal rate axis

Fed Rate Hike Odds December 2026: Skip, Then Hike?

Fed rate hike odds for December 2026 sit near 60% on Polymarket while October prices as a skip. Here is the full path markets price into year end.

2026-09-15 · 12 min readA grid of scattered projection dots clustered into two separate bands with a visible empty gap between them, above a horizontal rate axis, on a dark indigo background

Fed Dot Plot September 2026: What the Dots Will Show

The Fed dot plot lands September 16, 2026. June's median was 3.8%, prediction markets now price 4.06%, and Chair Warsh still refuses to submit a dot.

2026-09-11 · 12 min readA rising 10-year Treasury yield line breaking upward through a marked horizontal threshold, beside a stylised US Treasury certificate, on a dark indigo background

10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast 2026: Why 4.8% Matters

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% on September 8, 2026, its highest close since 2023. Here are the forecasts, the real-yield driver, and the Fed odds.

2026-09-08 · 12 min readA coin balanced on edge above a rising interest-rate step chart beside a calendar marking the September FOMC date

Fed Rate Hike Odds September 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi

Polymarket prices a September 2026 Fed rate hike at 51.5% and Kalshi at 54%. We break down the odds, the data moving them, and the September 16 decision.

2026-09-04 · 12 min readIllustration of the Federal Reserve building with a falling interest-rate path

When Will the Fed Cut Rates? 2026 Outlook & Odds

When will the Fed cut rates in 2026? We break down the FOMC schedule, inflation data, prediction-market odds, and what it means for your portfolio.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration comparing CPI and PCE inflation gauges on a balance scale

CPI vs PCE: The Inflation Gauge the Fed Watches

CPI vs PCE explained: why the Fed targets core PCE at 2%, how the two gauges differ on weighting and scope, and what the latest 2026 readings mean for rate policy.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of a house with a falling mortgage-rate percentage tag

Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2026? What Markets Say

Will mortgage rates drop in 2026? We break down Fed policy, 10-year Treasury dynamics, and what prediction markets say about the path to lower rates.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of an empty Federal Reserve chair with a question mark

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? 2026 Odds

Who will be the next Fed chair? Kevin Warsh is now confirmed. We track how prediction markets priced the race and what his appointment means for rates.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of storm clouds over a city skyline with a recession probability gauge

Recession Odds 2026: What the Market Is Pricing

Live Polymarket odds, NY Fed model readings, the Sahm rule, and yield-curve data all in one place. Here is what the recession odds for 2026 actually say.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of a prediction market with a probability dial and yes/no outcome tokens

What Are Prediction Markets? Polymarket & Kalshi Explained

What are prediction markets? We break down how Polymarket and Kalshi turn crowd wisdom into real-time odds on Fed decisions, elections, and more.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of the US Capitol with a rising national debt counter

US National Debt Explained (2026): How Big Is It?

The US national debt just crossed $39 trillion. We break down who owns it, what it costs to service, and why it keeps pushing interest rates higher.

2026-06-06 · 13 min readIllustration of the Federal Reserve seal beside a 2026 meeting calendar

2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule: Every Date & What Happens

The complete 2026 FOMC meeting schedule: all eight dates, which meetings include the dot plot, what the Fed actually decides, and how to trade around each decision.

2026-06-06 · 12 min readIllustration of a Treasury yield curve line dipping below zero

What Is an Inverted Yield Curve? Recession Signal

The inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. We break down what it means, how to read the 10y-2y spread, and what the 2022-2024 inversion tells us now.

2026-06-06 · 12 min readIllustration of placing a trade on a Fed rate-cut prediction market

How to Bet on Fed Rate Cuts (2026 Guide)

A step-by-step guide to trading Fed rate cut prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, covering contracts, implied probability, fees, and strategy.

2026-06-06 · 13 min read