Next Fed Chair Odds (Live Prediction Market)
The market's live odds on the next Fed Chair. This is a politics-meets-macro market: the pick shapes the path of rates, so traders watch it closely.
85%implied front-runner odds
-1.4 ptslast 24h
Next FOMC decisionSep 16
Updated Aug 8, 4:14 PM UTC
Prediction market says
85.3%
Yes: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
PolymarketThe official data
Effective federal funds rate3.63%
FRED FEDFUNDSas of Jul 2026Why the Chair matters
The Fed Chair sets the tone for monetary policy and steers the committee. A more dovish Chair raises the odds of cuts; a more hawkish one lowers them. That is why this market moves rate expectations too.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves when a new Chair is confirmed (or the term outcome is settled). The Polymarket market page lists the exact resolution date and criteria.