Next Fed Chair Odds (Live Prediction Market)

The market's live odds on the next Fed Chair. This is a politics-meets-macro market: the pick shapes the path of rates, so traders watch it closely.

Prediction market says

100%

No: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Polymarket

The official data

Effective federal funds rate3.63%
FRED FEDFUNDSas of May 2026

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No100%Bet
Yes0.1%Bet

Why the Chair matters

The Fed Chair sets the tone for monetary policy and steers the committee. A more dovish Chair raises the odds of cuts; a more hawkish one lowers them. That is why this market moves rate expectations too.

FAQ

When does this market resolve?

It resolves when a new Chair is confirmed (or the term outcome is settled). The Polymarket market page lists the exact resolution date and criteria.