July 2026 FOMC Meeting Odds

Live Polymarket odds for the July 2026 Federal Reserve decision (July 28-29, 2026), next to the official data the Fed watches.

Decision inJuly 28-29, 2026

Next Fed decision · July 28-29, 2026

What the market expects

Polymarket $82.1M vol

Cut0.5%

Hold83.4%

Hike15.4%

The official data

Fed target range3.5-3.75%

CPI (YoY)—

Core CPI (YoY)—

Unemployment4.2%

2Y Treasury4.21%

10Y Treasury4.6%

The MacroOdds Signal

The data is mixed

Aligned: the market (1% cut) and the fundamentals point the same way.

Unemployment rate

The labor market looks roughly balanced.

4.2%Neutral

Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y)

Roughly flat; a mixed signal.

+0.39%Neutral

A rule-based read of the official data (0 dovish, 0 hawkish), shown next to the live market. Informational, not financial advice.

Probability history

How July 2026 cut odds have moved

Implied probability of a cut

24h -0.1 pts7d -0.1 pts30d -1.3 pts

What to watch into July 2026

The CPI and jobs reports released before the meeting tend to move these odds the most. Track the running picture on our Fed decision dashboard, the 2026 rate-cut path, and inflation odds.

Frequently asked questions

Will the Fed cut rates at the July 2026 meeting?

The cut, hold, and hike percentages above are live Polymarket odds for the July 2026 FOMC decision. They update continuously as traders react to new data.

When is the July 2026 FOMC meeting?

The July 2026 meeting runs July 28-29, 2026, with the rate decision on the second day at about 2pm ET.

How are these odds set?

They come from live prices on Polymarket. We show the official macro data (target range, CPI, core CPI, unemployment, 2Y and 10Y yields) next to them so you can see what is moving the odds.

Is this financial advice?

No. MacroOdds is informational only and not financial, investment, or trading advice.

Informational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with the Federal Reserve or Polymarket.