October 2026 FOMC Meeting Odds
Live Polymarket odds for the October 2026 Federal Reserve decision (October 27-28, 2026), next to the official data the Fed watches.
Next Fed decision · October 27-28, 2026
What the market expects
The official data
The MacroOdds Signal
The data is mixed
A rule-based read of the official data (0 dovish, 0 hawkish), shown next to the live market. Informational, not financial advice.
Probability history
How October 2026 cut odds have moved
Implied probability of a cut
What to watch into October 2026
The CPI and jobs reports released before the meeting tend to move these odds the most. Track the running picture on our Fed decision dashboard, the 2026 rate-cut path, and inflation odds.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Fed cut rates at the October 2026 meeting?
The cut, hold, and hike percentages above are live Polymarket odds for the October 2026 FOMC decision. They update continuously as traders react to new data.
When is the October 2026 FOMC meeting?
The October 2026 meeting runs October 27-28, 2026, with the rate decision on the second day at about 2pm ET.
How are these odds set?
They come from live prices on Polymarket. We show the official macro data (target range, CPI, core CPI, unemployment, 2Y and 10Y yields) next to them so you can see what is moving the odds.
Is this financial advice?
No. MacroOdds is informational only and not financial, investment, or trading advice.
Informational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with the Federal Reserve or Polymarket.