Mortgage Rate Prediction (30-Year Rate + Market Odds)
The official 30-year mortgage rate, tracked weekly, alongside the Fed-rate odds that drive it. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury and Fed expectations more than the Fed's own move, so the prediction market is a useful leading read.
Prediction market says
93.1%
Yes: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
PolymarketThe official data
What moves mortgage rates
Thirty-year mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread. The 10-year, in turn, moves on inflation data and Fed-rate expectations. That is why the Fed-rate prediction market is a sensible forward indicator for mortgages.
When cut odds rise, Treasury yields often ease and mortgage rates tend to follow, though the spread can widen or narrow independently.
FAQ
Does a Fed cut lower my mortgage rate?
Not directly. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury and inflation expectations, which often move ahead of the Fed. A cut already priced in may have little further effect.